Thursday, July 15, 2010

The Logic of Prisoner Swaps

Can someone please explain to me the logic of swapping one captured Israeli soldier for hundreds, maybe thousands, of terrorists? It could be I'm missing some basic part of this, in which case, I hope someone will enlighten me.

To me, if these guys are dangerous terrorists, then I don't see why the Israelis would release them in exchange for just Gilad Shalit. Gilad Shalit is not dangerous to Hamas. He's just some guy they kidnapped. Presumably, these terrorists Israel has locked up are there because they have either committed, or participated in the commission of, horrendous crimes, and there is reason to think they are still dangerous.

If, on the other hand, all the terrorists offered in exchange are not dangerous, as in, not really terrorists, then why are they locked up in the first place? Just for the purposes of prisoner exchanges? That seems pretty stupid - stop locking up prisoners to be used for prisoner exchanges, and you take away Hamas's reason to kidnap Israeli soldiers.

I understand there's some psychological benefit in doing anything you can to bring any Israeli soldier that falls into enemy hands home, but I think we can agree that a thousand terrorists seems excessive. It seems the height of foolish sentimentality to me to hold, as an absolute value, that you'll give in to terrorist demands to bring a soldier home. Again, assuming at least some of these guys have blood on their hands, I don't see how there is a net gain, even psychologically, in bringing home one soldier, who killed nobody, in exchange for a prisoner that killed twenty people at a pizzeria. If anything, soldiers accept certain risks (such as capture or death) that are not typically contemplated by restaurant patrons.

And, just additionally, if you're unwilling to negotiate with Hamas to bring peace to the region, because you don't negotiate with terrorists, then why the hell do you negotiate with terrorists to bring one soldier home? Especially when the terrorists only kidnapped the soldier so you would negotiate with them for the release of prisoners?

5 comments:

Izgad said...

Because we have done this before. As a liberal society once we have given up thousands for other captured Israelis we cannot tell the parents of Shalit that we do not put the same value on his life.

I am all for telling Hamas to give Shalit back or by the hour we will start taking Hamas prisoners and gouge out their eyes and lower them into meat grinders.

Vox Populi said...

Didn't Albert Einstein say that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?

Although, from what you say, perhaps the Israelis are not expecting different results, and just plan to keep on doing these things.

I just don't see the point in continuing this farce. I feel very sorry for the Shalits, but it seems there's a greater danger in (a) releasing terrorists, and (b) continuing to incentivize the abduction of other soldiers.

>I am all for telling Hamas to give Shalit back or by the hour we will start taking Hamas prisoners and gouge out their eyes and lower them into meat grinders.

As you might guess, I'm not so interested in doing that.

geo said...

Though I'm far, far, far from being a supporter of Hamas, I would ask how Hamas can significantly pressure Israel besides with actions similar to what it did with Mr. Shalit.

His being alive gives them some "bargaining power". Where else do they realistically have similar power related to the Israeli Government.

Suggesting Violent responses by the Israeli Government (as you have not suggested) seems to me to most likely encourage Hamas to resume violent activities against Israelis, which I would hope we all would Not Want.

It is Not an easy situation to be in. I don't think that one has to be a "radical" to presume that there are different "levels" of "Danger" in prisoners one holds, from None (completely political) to Significant.

You and others can address many of the other issues here

Vox Populi said...

>I would ask how Hamas can significantly pressure Israel besides with actions similar to what it did with Mr. Shalit.

We know why Hamas does it. But why do the Israelis react the way they do?

>Suggesting Violent responses by the Israeli Government (as you have not suggested) seems to me to most likely encourage Hamas to resume violent activities against Israelis, which I would hope we all would Not Want.

They don't need to respond at all. Other than, if they see Hamas gunmen trying to abduct a soldier, they fight him off, and once he is captured, they demand him back and look for ways of getting him back.

There's no need to engage in an absurd quid pro quo. Gilad Shalit is valuable to the Israelis only because they say he is valuable. If Israel did not care so much about redeeming captives, their soldiers wouldn't be kidnapped.

>I don't think that one has to be a "radical" to presume that there are different "levels" of "Danger" in prisoners one holds, from None (completely political) to Significant.

I don't care how you rank each Palestinian prisoner's level of dangerousness. If even a few of them have done anything to merit being locked away without the possibility of parole, then I hope they're really dangerous, or else they have no business being so encumbered. If that's the case, then it makes no sense to trade them.

geo said...

I would agree with what you are saying. In the West Bank, the Israeli "power" is premised upon detention and "might" to take on a popular rebellion against the Occupation. Houses are demolished when one household member has purportedly committed violence against Israel's interests.

On the one hand, Israel says: "Don't Be Violent", while on the other hand peaceful resistance is either "wrong" or "not enough" to show that the Palestinians can be trusted in potential peace negotiations.

Expanding Israeli Settlements and increased restrictions upon movement through The Wall and other actions (as well as the normal state of occupation) bring resistance.

I think that this is understandable!

We often act as if The Palestinians should "act reasonably" and "democratically", however 43 years of occupation do strangely not lead to the presumption that the Occupation will be ended if Palestinians "act nice".

Israel does place a "value" upon its captured soldiers that you may see as unnecessary. I suspect that both The Holocaust and the losses of life in Wars from 1948 on as well as "terrorism" and similar creates a mindset where individual lives/deaths are Highly Valued (when Israeli), while having little or no value (when Palestinian - by the Israelis).